A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
